If there’s one part of horse racing that gets the blood pumping, it’s backing a longshot.
I’m not talking about the short-priced favourites that drift in and out of the winners’ enclosure.
I’m talking about those big-odds runners – priced at 20/1, sometimes even 50/1 – that most punters scroll past.
At Joe Norris Tips, I’ve always believed the market isn’t perfect.
Bookies get it wrong; longshots are where smart bettors can exploit that edge.
Whether it’s a trainer gamble, a course specialist, or a form line everyone else missed, I’ve made a career of spotting the diamonds hiding in the rough.
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What Are Longshot Horse Racing Tips?
When we talk about longshots in horse racing, we’re referring to those runners the market often overlooks.
They’re the horses priced at big odds – usually 16/1 or higher – that most punters ignore in favour of the favourites.
The difference between longshots and market leaders is enormous, not just in price but in perception.
Favourites are trusted, safe, and backed by public money.
Longshots are wildcards, but when they strike, the returns can transform your bankroll overnight.
Why Bettors Look for Longshots
There’s no denying the risk.
Longshots lose more often than they win – but the rewards are massive when they do land.
That high-risk, high-reward profile makes longshots appealing to value-driven bettors like me.
If you enjoy outsmarting the market and finding hidden value, this is where your edge can lie.
How Tipsters Identify Longshot Opportunities
Spotting a good longshot isn’t about blind guessing.
It starts with digging into trainer patterns – some handlers are known for targeting high prices at specific tracks.
Hidden form plays a huge part, too.
The horse may have run poorly on heavy ground but thrives on the Polytrack.
A significant piece of kit could be added – first-time blinkers or a tongue tie – that could bring improvement.
And then there’s track bias and race shape.
Horses drawn wide in sprints at specific venues are often ignored, but some thrive from out there if the pace collapses inside.
When to Bet on Longshots
Handicaps are prime ground for long shots.
These races are designed to level the playing field, and that’s where the market often misses a trick.
Big-field contests and festivals – like Cheltenham or Royal Ascot – also throw up overlooked runners that can surprise.
Look for horses dropping in class, returning to a preferred surface, or reuniting with a winning jockey.
Strategies for Betting on Longshots
The most innovative way to play longshots is often each-way.
That way, you get paid if your horse places – even if it doesn’t win.
You can also include them in doubles or Lucky 15s, mixing them with more reliable favourites to hedge your bet.
The key is to keep your unit stakes sensible.
One good strike can cover several days of missed shots.
Managing Risk with Longshot Tips
Discipline is vital.
Longshot punting requires patience, proper bankroll planning, and staking that reflects volatility.
Set aside a portion of your bank specifically for higher prices.
And never chase – missing a long shot is frustrating, but forcing the next one is how you burn your bank.
Where to Find Quality Longshot Horse Racing Tips
You’ll find the best longshot insight from independent tipsters specialising in underdog analysis.
Some Telegram channels focus exclusively on this angle, and sites like Tipstrr allow you to filter tipsters by average odds and ROI.
Festival previews are also worth a look – these often highlight dark horses with genuine claims.
FAQs
How Often Do Longshots Win in Horse Racing?
Longshots win rarely – typically less than 5% of the time – because the odds reflect low expectations. I only back them when my analysis spots overlooked forms or conditions that change the picture.
Are Longshots Worth Including in Accas?
Longshots are worth including in accas when they balance value and logic, not just because they offer significant returns. I use them sparingly to avoid collapsing the whole bet on one low-probability leg.
Can You Profit from Longshots Long-Term?
You can profit from longshots if sharp data and disciplined staking back selections. I log every bet and focus on whether the odds misprice the real chance – not chasing big wins.
Final Thoughts on Longshot Horse Racing Tips
Longshot betting isn’t for the faint-hearted, but it can be gratifying when approached with discipline, knowledge, and patience.
You won’t win every time – but you don’t have to.
All it takes is one or two well-researched strikes to make the difference over the long haul.
If you’re following my tips at Joe Norris Tips, I’ll always flag the runners I believe are being overlooked by the market and have genuine claims.
So stay sharp, trust the data, and don’t be afraid to think outside your favourite box.
Sometimes, the outsider is the one that changes your season.
